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Original Articles

Fostering the Development of European Regions: A Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Analysis of the Impact of Cohesion Policy

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Pages 1573-1593 | Published online: 08 Dec 2011
 

Abstract

Bouayad-Agha S., Turpin N. and Védrine L. Fostering the development of European regions: a spatial dynamic panel data analysis of the impact of cohesion policy, Regional Studies. This paper uses a conditional–convergence econometric model to investigate whether cohesion policy affects European economies. Its main contribution is to consider both spatial and temporal dynamics in assessing the impact of European cohesion policy. Econometric estimations rely on a dataset of 143 EU-14-NUTS-1/NUTS-2 regions from 1980 to 2005. The results suggest that Objective 1 programmes have a direct effect on regional gross domestic product per capita growth rates, whereas total Structural Funds do not. Moreover, consideration of the spatial dimension of the panel brings to light a still significant, but less important, impact of Structural Funds.

Bouayad-Agha S., Turpin N. and Vedrine L. 促进欧洲区域的发展:通过空间动态面板数据对于整合政策影响进行的分析, 区域研究。本文利用条件收敛的计量经济模型考察了欧洲整合政策对欧洲经济产生的影响。本研究的主要贡献在于考察了空间及时间动态分析在评价欧洲整合政策中的作用。经济模型预估数据是基于 1980 年至 2005 年的143 EU-14-NUTS-1/NUTS-2 数据库。研究结果表明,目标一程序对区域人均国内生产总值增率产生直接影响,而未对总结构基金产生影响。面板的空间层面对结构基金产生的影响相对较弱。

Bouayad-Agha S., Turpin N. et Védrine L. Promouvoir le développement des régions européennes: une analyse dynamique spatiale en données de panel de l'impact de la politique en faveur de la cohésion, Regional Studies. Cet article emploie un modèle économétrique de convergence conditionnelle pour examiner si, oui ou non, la politique en faveur de la cohésion influe sur les économies européennes. On examine principalement les dynamiques à la fois spatiales et temporelles en évaluant l'impact de la politique européenne en faveur de la cohésion. Les estimations économétriques puisent dans une banque de données auprès de 143 régions NUTS-1/NUTS-2 de l'Union européenne de 1980 à 2005. Les résultats laissent supposer que les actions en faveur de l'Objectif 1 ont un effet immédiat sur les taux de croissance du produit intérieur brut régional par tête, à la différence des fonds structurels globaux. Qui plus est, examiner l'aspect spatial des données de panel laisse voir un impact des fonds structurels qui s'avère encore significatif bien que moins important.

Bouayad-Agha S., Turpin N. und Védrine L. Förderung der Entwicklung der europäischen Regionen: eine räumliche, dynamische Paneldaten-Analyse der Auswirkung der Kohäsionspolitik, Regional Studies. In diesem Beitrag wird mit Hilfe eines ökonometrischen konditionalen Konvergenzmodells untersucht, ob sich die Kohäsionspolitik auf die europäischen Ökonomien auswirkt. Der wichtigste Beitrag liegt hierbei in einer gleichzeitigen Berücksichtigung der räumlichen und zeitlichen Dynamik zur Bewertung der Auswirkung der europäischen Kohäsionspolitik. Die ökonometrischen Schätzungen basieren auf einem Datensatz der 143 EU-14-NUTS-1/NUTS-2-Regionen im Zeitraum von 1980 bis 2005. Aus den Ergebnissen geht hervor, dass sich die Ziel-1-Programme unmittelbar auf das Wachstum des regionalen Pro-Kopf-Bruttoinlandsprodukts auswirken, nicht jedoch die gesamten Strukturfonds. Darüber hinaus ergibt sich bei Berücksichtigung der räumlichen Dimension des Panels eine nach wie vor signifikante, aber weniger wichtige Auswirkung der Strukturfonds.

Bouayad-Agha S., Turpin N. y Védrine L. Fomentar el desarrollo de las regiones europeas: análisis dinámico espacial de datos de panel del impacto de la política de cohesión, Regional Studies. En este artículo utilizamos un modelo econométrico de convergencia condicional para analizar si la política de cohesión afecta a las economías europeas. Su principal contribución es considerar tanto las dinámicas espaciales como temporales a la hora de evaluar el impacto de la política de cohesión europea. Las estimaciones econométricas se basan en un grupo de datos de 143 regiones EU-14-NUTS-1/NUTS-2 de 1980 a 2005. Los resultados indican que los programas del Objetivo 1 tienen un efecto directo en las tasas de crecimiento del producto interno bruto per cápita regional mientras que este efecto no ocurre en los fondos estructurales. Además, al considerar la dimensión espacial del panel observamos un impacto todavía significativo pero menos importante de los fondos estructurales.

JEL classifications:

Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to Sylvain Chabé-Ferret; to the participants of the International Conference of the Regional Studies Association in Pécs, Hungary, May 2010; to the participants of the 9th Workshop of Spatial Econometrics in Orléans, France, June 2010; and to two anonymous reviewers. This publication was funded under the PRIMA collaborative project, European Union 7th Framework Programme, Theme 6 (ENV 2007-1) Environment (including Climate Change) European Commission, DG Research, Contract Number 212345. Its content does not represent the official position of the European Commission and is entirely under the responsibility of the authors.

Notes

1. In their recent contribution Hagen and Mohl Citation(2009) provide a fundamental review of the econometric evaluation of European Union cohesion policy in order to shed light on the reasons for the diverging results.

2. This term is defined without distinction of meaning through spatial lag, spatial autoregressive term or spatial spillover.

3. Jacobs et al. (2009) allow both processes to be present simultaneously. They argue that spatial error dependence may exist above and beyond the theoretically motivated lag structure.

4. This specification is similar to that suggested by Mohl and Hagen Citation(2010), but they are using a different estimation method. Specifically, Mohl and Hagen estimate a simple dynamic model using GMM. They then estimate the spatial dynamic specification using maximum likelihood as it usual for a static spatial panel specification, without taking into account the endogeneity of the autoregressive term and the potential endogeneity of the Structural Fund allocation. Hence, the estimation strategy seems more adequate to consider both these two sources of endogeneity with the spatial autoregressive term.

5. Nomenclature of Territorial Unit Statistics (NUTS) provides homogenization of sub-national boundaries into the European Union. Although the level of decision reference for cohesion policy is the NUTS-2 level, some member states use a statistical NUTS-1 level for the simple reason that it corresponds to a real administrative level in their own territorial organization (for example, Länder in Germany).

6. For the Cambridge Econometrics database, see http://www.camecon.com/.

7. For an analysis, see Temple (1999).

8. Looking at some descriptive statistics (not presented here), it can be seen that for regions in Spain, Greece and Portugal the GDP per-capita average in 2000–2005 is still below the EU-14 1980–1984 average.

9. System-GMM was not used because the additional instruments of the level equation are not valid.

10. This effect is also significant in a specification without the variable measuring the Structural Funds allocated for the Objective 1 programme.

11. This is equivalent to a simple dynamic specification (Esposti and Bussoletti, Citation2008; Mohl and Hagen, Citation2010).

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